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Thursday, October 27, 2016
EUR/USD: technical analysis- EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is growing from the lower line of Bollinger
Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning
down. The RSI is leaving the oversold zone. The Composite is breaking
out its longer MA having formed a divergence with the price that
suggests a growth possibility.
EUR/USD: technical analysis- EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is growing from the lower line of Bollinger
Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning
down. The RSI is leaving the oversold zone. The Composite is breaking
out its longer MA having formed a divergence with the price that
suggests a growth possibility.
EUR/USD: technical analysis-EUR/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is about to test its most recent resistance. The Composite turned up as it failed its longer MA.
GBP/JPY: Ichimoku clouds
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen,
the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the
price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above
Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The
closest support level is Tenkan-sen line (128.35). One of the previous
maximums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level
(127.30).
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have become support (127.70) and resistance (127.05) levels respectively.
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have become support (127.70) and resistance (127.05) levels respectively.
EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen,
the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the
price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has entered the
cloud. Borders of the cloud serve as the closest support (113.85) and
resistance (114.15) levels.
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have become support (113.65) and resistance (114.15) levels respectively.
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have become support (113.65) and resistance (114.15) levels respectively.
XAU/USD: the pair is under pressure of US stats
Current trend
Gold prices declined significantly as a result of Wednesday trading session. The pair is still under pressure of the growing likelihood of US monetary policy toughening before the end of this year. However, the trend in the decline of the dollar, which was established in the stock markets, holding back the further falling of pair.
Moderate support to the dollar on Wednesday was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, traders optimistically met the data on business activity and the sales of new homes. In September, after a significant decline in August (–8.6%), sales of new homes in the country grew by 3.1%, reaching 0.593 million units. According to preliminary data for October, the index of business activity in the services sector by Markit rose from 52.3 to 54.8 points, while analysts do not expect any change at all.
On Thursday, October 27, markets expect the publication of important data on orders for durable goods in September. According to forecasts, statistics can provide additional support for the dollar, as the information on the dynamics of the orders for August was disappointing.
Support and resistance
Resistance: 1270.00 (the nearest level), 1274.27 (maximum of 20th of October), 1276.84 (maximum of 5th of October), 1282.01, 1289.57, 1300.00 (a strong psychological level).
Support: 1264.45 (low of 26th of October), 1260.23 (minimum of 24th of October), 1256.12, 1251.00, 1245.94 (minimum of 14th of October), 1241.21 (minimum of 7th of October).
The indicator "Bollinger Bands" on the daily chart is moving sideways. Price range isn’t expanding, delineating the boundaries of the short-term flat. It is recommended to stick to the channel trading strategy.
MACD indicator is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). It is recommended to hold long positions, while to open new trades it’s better to wait for the additional signals.
"Stochastic" oscillator moves down, lying in the central zone. Current readings of the indicator evidence in favor of a downward correction later in the week.
Trading tips
To open a long position, you can rely on the reversal of the tool close to 1268.50, provided that evidence of technical indicators doesn’t contradict this. Take-profit – 1282.01 or 1289.57. Stop-loss – 1260.23/1256.12. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
A breakdown of 1264.45/00 may be a signal for further sales with the targets of 1251.00 or 1245.94. Stop-loss – 1270.00/1274.27. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
Gold prices declined significantly as a result of Wednesday trading session. The pair is still under pressure of the growing likelihood of US monetary policy toughening before the end of this year. However, the trend in the decline of the dollar, which was established in the stock markets, holding back the further falling of pair.
Moderate support to the dollar on Wednesday was provided by good macroeconomic statistics from the US. In particular, traders optimistically met the data on business activity and the sales of new homes. In September, after a significant decline in August (–8.6%), sales of new homes in the country grew by 3.1%, reaching 0.593 million units. According to preliminary data for October, the index of business activity in the services sector by Markit rose from 52.3 to 54.8 points, while analysts do not expect any change at all.
On Thursday, October 27, markets expect the publication of important data on orders for durable goods in September. According to forecasts, statistics can provide additional support for the dollar, as the information on the dynamics of the orders for August was disappointing.
Support and resistance
Resistance: 1270.00 (the nearest level), 1274.27 (maximum of 20th of October), 1276.84 (maximum of 5th of October), 1282.01, 1289.57, 1300.00 (a strong psychological level).
Support: 1264.45 (low of 26th of October), 1260.23 (minimum of 24th of October), 1256.12, 1251.00, 1245.94 (minimum of 14th of October), 1241.21 (minimum of 7th of October).
The indicator "Bollinger Bands" on the daily chart is moving sideways. Price range isn’t expanding, delineating the boundaries of the short-term flat. It is recommended to stick to the channel trading strategy.
MACD indicator is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). It is recommended to hold long positions, while to open new trades it’s better to wait for the additional signals.
"Stochastic" oscillator moves down, lying in the central zone. Current readings of the indicator evidence in favor of a downward correction later in the week.
Trading tips
To open a long position, you can rely on the reversal of the tool close to 1268.50, provided that evidence of technical indicators doesn’t contradict this. Take-profit – 1282.01 or 1289.57. Stop-loss – 1260.23/1256.12. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
A breakdown of 1264.45/00 may be a signal for further sales with the targets of 1251.00 or 1245.94. Stop-loss – 1270.00/1274.27. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
NQ: index is falling
Current trend
On Wednesday the NASDAQ100 index was trading down amid disappointing quarterly earnings reports from US companies. In particular, Apple shares fell 2.3% after the company reported the third consecutive decline driven mainly by a slowdown in flagship smartphone sales.
US stock indexes were also pressured by relatively strong macroeconomic statistics. Sales of newly built homes rose 3.1% in September after an 8.6% fall in August. The indicator approached its 9-year high again, which was reached in July this year.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and has formed a sell signal. Stochastic is also moving down.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 4843.4 (26 October low), 4836.0, 4822.7, 4815.4, 4802.2 (20 October low), 4783.4 (17 October low), 4758.8 (13 October low).
Resistance levels: 4850.2, 4859.8 (18 October high), 4878.6, 4895.0, 4904.5 (10 October high), 4922.7 (25 October high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 4872.0 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 4895.0 and stop-loss at 4850.0. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 4850.2 or 4843.4 with targets at 4815.4, 4802.2 and stop-loss at 4860.0. Validity – 2-3 days.
On Wednesday the NASDAQ100 index was trading down amid disappointing quarterly earnings reports from US companies. In particular, Apple shares fell 2.3% after the company reported the third consecutive decline driven mainly by a slowdown in flagship smartphone sales.
US stock indexes were also pressured by relatively strong macroeconomic statistics. Sales of newly built homes rose 3.1% in September after an 8.6% fall in August. The indicator approached its 9-year high again, which was reached in July this year.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and has formed a sell signal. Stochastic is also moving down.
The indicators recommend short positions.
Support levels: 4843.4 (26 October low), 4836.0, 4822.7, 4815.4, 4802.2 (20 October low), 4783.4 (17 October low), 4758.8 (13 October low).
Resistance levels: 4850.2, 4859.8 (18 October high), 4878.6, 4895.0, 4904.5 (10 October high), 4922.7 (25 October high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 4872.0 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 4895.0 and stop-loss at 4850.0. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 4850.2 or 4843.4 with targets at 4815.4, 4802.2 and stop-loss at 4860.0. Validity – 2-3 days.
USD/JPY: growth slowed
Current trend
Yesterday the pair slightly strengthened, remaining near its local highs.
The Dollar is supported by quite strong macroeconomic data from the US. On Wednesday, market participants met with optimism data on New Home Sales for September. After a sharp fall in August by 8.6%, September’s figures showed a growth of 3.1% that was noticeably better than the expectations of economists. In absolute numbers, sales rose to 0.593 million. In addition, data on the Markit PMI’s came out better than forecasts as well. The Services PMI in October grew from 52.3 to 54.8 points while the Composite index increased from 52.3 to 54.9 points.
At the same time, during today’s morning session the Yen rose after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Iwata appearance. He stated that the regulator is going to continue pursuing strong quantitative easing policy.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range remains very narrow. MACD is growing and giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic is turning down near the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 104.19 (local low), 104.00, 103.64, 103.33 (13 October low), 103.00, 102.80 (10 October low), 102.45, 102.26, 102.00 (4 October low).
Resistance levels: 104.63 (13 October high), 105.00 (29 July high), 105.59, 106.04, 106.39 (27 July high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 104.63 with targets at 105.59, 106.04, 106.39 and stop-loss at 104.19. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 104.19 with targets at 103.00, 102.80 and stop-loss at 104.63. Validity – 2-3 days.
Yesterday the pair slightly strengthened, remaining near its local highs.
The Dollar is supported by quite strong macroeconomic data from the US. On Wednesday, market participants met with optimism data on New Home Sales for September. After a sharp fall in August by 8.6%, September’s figures showed a growth of 3.1% that was noticeably better than the expectations of economists. In absolute numbers, sales rose to 0.593 million. In addition, data on the Markit PMI’s came out better than forecasts as well. The Services PMI in October grew from 52.3 to 54.8 points while the Composite index increased from 52.3 to 54.9 points.
At the same time, during today’s morning session the Yen rose after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Iwata appearance. He stated that the regulator is going to continue pursuing strong quantitative easing policy.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range remains very narrow. MACD is growing and giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic is turning down near the border of the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 104.19 (local low), 104.00, 103.64, 103.33 (13 October low), 103.00, 102.80 (10 October low), 102.45, 102.26, 102.00 (4 October low).
Resistance levels: 104.63 (13 October high), 105.00 (29 July high), 105.59, 106.04, 106.39 (27 July high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 104.63 with targets at 105.59, 106.04, 106.39 and stop-loss at 104.19. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 104.19 with targets at 103.00, 102.80 and stop-loss at 104.63. Validity – 2-3 days.
Monday, October 24, 2016
EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
In the previous trading session, the EUR/USD continued to fall due to the strengthening of dollar and weak statistics from the Eurozone.
Today, the pair found support at 1.0859 (March low), from which the correction started. Support for the pair grows from the Germany and the Eurozone statistics. In Germany, the Markit index in service sector rose to 54.1 points in October from 50.9 points a month earlier. PMI Markit in manufacturing sector in October rose to 55 points from 54.3 points a month earlier. The Eurozone PMI Markit in the service sector increased in October to 53.5 points from 52.2 points a month earlier. Reacting to this news the EUR/USD will try to regain some of the lost positions, as the macroeconomic calendar today contains no significant releases that could have an impact on the rate of EUR/USD. On Tuesday, investors expect the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi (17:30 GMT+2), which may lead to increased volatility on the EUR/USD.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0859, 1.0810, 1.0770, 1.0730.
Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0950, 1.1004, 1.1038.
Trading tips
On the 4-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downwards, indicating that the downward trend is still strong, but the price broke the lower band and can be adjusted to the area of the moving average. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but its volumes are gradually reduced, indicating a continuation of upward correction.
Positions to buy can be opened after the break and consolidation above the level of 1.0910 with the targets in the area of 1.0950, 1.1004 and stop loss at 1.0880.
Sell positions should be placed below 1.0859 with the targets of 1.0810, 1.0770 and stop loss at 1.0889.
In the previous trading session, the EUR/USD continued to fall due to the strengthening of dollar and weak statistics from the Eurozone.
Today, the pair found support at 1.0859 (March low), from which the correction started. Support for the pair grows from the Germany and the Eurozone statistics. In Germany, the Markit index in service sector rose to 54.1 points in October from 50.9 points a month earlier. PMI Markit in manufacturing sector in October rose to 55 points from 54.3 points a month earlier. The Eurozone PMI Markit in the service sector increased in October to 53.5 points from 52.2 points a month earlier. Reacting to this news the EUR/USD will try to regain some of the lost positions, as the macroeconomic calendar today contains no significant releases that could have an impact on the rate of EUR/USD. On Tuesday, investors expect the speech of ECB President Mario Draghi (17:30 GMT+2), which may lead to increased volatility on the EUR/USD.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0859, 1.0810, 1.0770, 1.0730.
Resistance levels: 1.0910, 1.0950, 1.1004, 1.1038.
Trading tips
On the 4-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downwards, indicating that the downward trend is still strong, but the price broke the lower band and can be adjusted to the area of the moving average. The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but its volumes are gradually reduced, indicating a continuation of upward correction.
Positions to buy can be opened after the break and consolidation above the level of 1.0910 with the targets in the area of 1.0950, 1.1004 and stop loss at 1.0880.
Sell positions should be placed below 1.0859 with the targets of 1.0810, 1.0770 and stop loss at 1.0889.
FDAX: technical analysis-FDAX, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of
Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that are
directed up. The RSI is growing having broken out its longer MA. The
Composite is breaking out its September resistance.
FDAX: technical analysis- FDAX, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading above the upper line of
Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that turned
up. The RSI is entering the overbought zone. The Composite is testing
its longer MA.
EUR/GBP: Ichimoku clouds
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the blue line is
directed upwards, while the red one remains horizontal. Confirmative
line Chikou Span is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending.
The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines.
Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen lines have become support (0.8840) and
resistance (0.9000) levels respectively.
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (0.8790). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.8910).
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are directed downwards. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (0.8790). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (0.8910).
AUD/JPY: Ichimoku clouds
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are
horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the price chart,
current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading above Tenkan-sen
and Kijun-sen lines; the Bullish trend is still strong. The closest
support level is Tenkan-sen line (78.95). One of the previous maximums
of Chikou Span line is expected to be a resistance level (79.85).
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has broken through the cloud and is still rising. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (79.00). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (79.15).
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument has broken through the cloud and is still rising. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (79.00). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (79.15).
USD/TRY: Dollar keeps growth potential
Current trend
The pair substantially grew in the end of last week but could not renew its Tuesday highs.
The Dollar continues strengthening amid growing expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year. Commentaries from the Fed officials are actively supporting the mood. They note that an interest rate hike should not be delayed because the economy is close to full employment while inflationary expectations are gradually increasing.
At the same time, the Dollar was slightly pressured by data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US. The index rose from 247 to 260 thousands that was worse than expectations of economists who predicted an increase to only 250 thousands. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey fell from 12.8 to 9.7 points that exceeded the forecasts of a decline to 5.3 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is narrowing from the bottom. MACD is falling and giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic is growing having bounced off the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 3.0750 (local low), 3.0649, 3.0511 (20 October low), 3.0379 (7 October low), 3.0264, 3.0111, 3.0000 (psychologically important level), 2.9926.
Resistance levels: 3.0866 (local high), 3.1000, 3.1133 (18 October high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 3.0886 with targets at 3.1133, 3.1150, 3.1200 and stop-loss at 3.0750. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 3.0735 with targets at 3.0511, 3.0379 and stop-loss at 3.0890. Validity – 2-3 days.
The pair substantially grew in the end of last week but could not renew its Tuesday highs.
The Dollar continues strengthening amid growing expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year. Commentaries from the Fed officials are actively supporting the mood. They note that an interest rate hike should not be delayed because the economy is close to full employment while inflationary expectations are gradually increasing.
At the same time, the Dollar was slightly pressured by data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US. The index rose from 247 to 260 thousands that was worse than expectations of economists who predicted an increase to only 250 thousands. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey fell from 12.8 to 9.7 points that exceeded the forecasts of a decline to 5.3 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is turning horizontally while the price range is narrowing from the bottom. MACD is falling and giving a weak sell signal. Stochastic is growing having bounced off the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 3.0750 (local low), 3.0649, 3.0511 (20 October low), 3.0379 (7 October low), 3.0264, 3.0111, 3.0000 (psychologically important level), 2.9926.
Resistance levels: 3.0866 (local high), 3.1000, 3.1133 (18 October high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 3.0886 with targets at 3.1133, 3.1150, 3.1200 and stop-loss at 3.0750. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 3.0735 with targets at 3.0511, 3.0379 and stop-loss at 3.0890. Validity – 2-3 days.
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar remains under pressure
Current trend
In the end of last week, the Australian Dollar significantly fell after the publication the weak data on the Australian labour market.
In September, the Unemployment Rate declined by 0.1% to 5.6%, which came as an unexpected surprise. At the same time, the Employment Change for the same period dropped by 9.8 thousands of new jobs that was substantially worse than forecasts of economists, who predicted its growth by 15.0 thousands. Furthermore, data on the Participation Rate missed the expectations as well. In September, the index fell from 64.7% to 64.5% while experts predicted a growth to 64.8%. In addition, the Fulltime Employment declined by 53.0 thousands that was slightly offset by an increase in the Part-time Employment by 43.2 thousands.
The US Dollar, in its turn, remains supported by growing expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a sell signal. Stochastic is falling as well and approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7600 (local low), 0.7580 (17 October low), 0.7560, 0.7533, 0.7516 (13 October low), 0.7500 (19 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7615 (local high), 0.7638, 0.7650 (local high), 0.7674, 0.7690, 0.7709, 0.7734 (20 October high), 0.7755 (10 August high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7635 with targets at 0.7690, 0.7709, 0.7755 and stop-loss at 0.7595. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7600 with targets at 0.7533, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7640. Validity – 2-3 days.
In the end of last week, the Australian Dollar significantly fell after the publication the weak data on the Australian labour market.
In September, the Unemployment Rate declined by 0.1% to 5.6%, which came as an unexpected surprise. At the same time, the Employment Change for the same period dropped by 9.8 thousands of new jobs that was substantially worse than forecasts of economists, who predicted its growth by 15.0 thousands. Furthermore, data on the Participation Rate missed the expectations as well. In September, the index fell from 64.7% to 64.5% while experts predicted a growth to 64.8%. In addition, the Fulltime Employment declined by 53.0 thousands that was slightly offset by an increase in the Part-time Employment by 43.2 thousands.
The US Dollar, in its turn, remains supported by growing expectations of monetary policy tightening by the Fed before the end of the year.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains unchanged. MACD is falling and giving a sell signal. Stochastic is falling as well and approaching the border of the oversold zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7600 (local low), 0.7580 (17 October low), 0.7560, 0.7533, 0.7516 (13 October low), 0.7500 (19 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7615 (local high), 0.7638, 0.7650 (local high), 0.7674, 0.7690, 0.7709, 0.7734 (20 October high), 0.7755 (10 August high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7635 with targets at 0.7690, 0.7709, 0.7755 and stop-loss at 0.7595. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7600 with targets at 0.7533, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7640. Validity – 2-3 days.
USD/JPY: the trend is not defined
Current trend
The Japanese yen is still trading flat in the short and medium term. Despite the publication of strong macro-economic statistics during Asian session of October, 24th, market activity remains low, and the players are in no hurry to sell the dollar amid growing expectations of rising interest rates in the US before the end of this year.
The data on the trade balance for September supported the yen a little bit. Exports in September fell by 6.9% YoY comparing to the decline of 9.6% YoY last month. Statistics came out much better than analysts' expectations, who were prepared for the negative dynamics (-10.4% YoY). Imports for the same period decreased by 16.3% YoY, which was better than the data in August (-17.3% YoY) and the expectations of experts (-16.6% YoY). Such statistics on imports and exports led to a greater increase in surplus of trade balance of the country. In September the index reached 498.3 billion yen, while analysts expected only 341.8 billion. Last month, we recall, the trade balance remained in deficit at the level of -18.7 billion yen.
Positive stats on Nikkei index of the PMI in the manufacturing sector has also been released today. According to preliminary data, the index rose in October from 50.4 to 51.7 points, which was slightly better than analysts' forecasts.
Support and resistance
Resistance: 104.00 (nearest level), 104.19 (maximum of 21st of October), 104.63 (maximum of 13th of October) and 105.00.
Support: 103.64 (the level was actively tested on Friday, 21 October), 103.23, 103.00, 102.80 (minimum of 10th of October), 102.45, 102.26, 102.00, 101.83, 101.50, 101.20.
The indicator "Bollinger Bands" on the daily chart shows a smooth turn the sideways movement. The price range is quite narrow, reflecting the inactiveness of last days. It is recommended to stick to channel trading strategy to clarify the situation.
The MACD indicator is moving downwards, maintaining a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It is recommended to keep the existing short positions in the short and very short-term, while the opening of new deals is better to avoid.
Oscillator "Stochastic" is growing rapidly, approaching the border of the overbought area. Current readings of the indicator are poorly correlated with the actual dynamics of the market, so you should wait for more accurate trading recommendations.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 103.50 with the target in the area of 103.00, 102.80 and stop loss at 103.80.
Long positions should be placed around 104.00 with targets at 103.00/102.80 and stop loss at 104.50. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
The Japanese yen is still trading flat in the short and medium term. Despite the publication of strong macro-economic statistics during Asian session of October, 24th, market activity remains low, and the players are in no hurry to sell the dollar amid growing expectations of rising interest rates in the US before the end of this year.
The data on the trade balance for September supported the yen a little bit. Exports in September fell by 6.9% YoY comparing to the decline of 9.6% YoY last month. Statistics came out much better than analysts' expectations, who were prepared for the negative dynamics (-10.4% YoY). Imports for the same period decreased by 16.3% YoY, which was better than the data in August (-17.3% YoY) and the expectations of experts (-16.6% YoY). Such statistics on imports and exports led to a greater increase in surplus of trade balance of the country. In September the index reached 498.3 billion yen, while analysts expected only 341.8 billion. Last month, we recall, the trade balance remained in deficit at the level of -18.7 billion yen.
Positive stats on Nikkei index of the PMI in the manufacturing sector has also been released today. According to preliminary data, the index rose in October from 50.4 to 51.7 points, which was slightly better than analysts' forecasts.
Support and resistance
Resistance: 104.00 (nearest level), 104.19 (maximum of 21st of October), 104.63 (maximum of 13th of October) and 105.00.
Support: 103.64 (the level was actively tested on Friday, 21 October), 103.23, 103.00, 102.80 (minimum of 10th of October), 102.45, 102.26, 102.00, 101.83, 101.50, 101.20.
The indicator "Bollinger Bands" on the daily chart shows a smooth turn the sideways movement. The price range is quite narrow, reflecting the inactiveness of last days. It is recommended to stick to channel trading strategy to clarify the situation.
The MACD indicator is moving downwards, maintaining a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It is recommended to keep the existing short positions in the short and very short-term, while the opening of new deals is better to avoid.
Oscillator "Stochastic" is growing rapidly, approaching the border of the overbought area. Current readings of the indicator are poorly correlated with the actual dynamics of the market, so you should wait for more accurate trading recommendations.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price breaks down the level of 103.50 with the target in the area of 103.00, 102.80 and stop loss at 103.80.
Long positions should be placed around 104.00 with targets at 103.00/102.80 and stop loss at 104.50. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger
band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed
down. The RSI is testing its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar
dynamics.
XAU/USD: technical analysis
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading just below the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just underneath its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is testing its longer MA. The Composite turned down just below its strong resistance level.
Friday, October 21, 2016
EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the lines are
horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart,
current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen
and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the
previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level
(112.52). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (114.17).
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen,
the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal.
Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud
is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen
lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums
of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (113.00). The
closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (133.91).
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen,
the red line is directed upwards, while the blue one remains horizontal.
Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart, current cloud
is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen
lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums
of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (113.00). The
closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (133.91).
NQ: growth continues
Current trend
The NASDAQ100 index ended yesterday’s trading session with moderate gains while other major US stock indexes closed in the red zone amid relatively poor macroeconomic data, disappointing quarterly earnings reports and a fall in oil prices.
On Thursday macroeconomic data showed an increase in the number of jobless claims. Initial claims increased from 247 000 to 260 000 against the forecast of 250 000. Continuing claims came out at 2.057 million while experts projected the indicator to remain unchanged at 2.050 million.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey index declined from 12.8 to 9.7 in October that was, however, better than the forecast of 5.3 points.
At the same time, it should be noted that data on the US housing sector was positive. After falling by 1.5% in August, existing home sales grew by 3.2% to 5.47 million in September while a gain of only 0.4% was expected.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving sideways while the price range remains almost unchanged. MACD is growing and keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic has approached the border of the overbought zone and is about to turn horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 4836.0, 4822.7, 4815.4, 4802.2 (20 October low), 4783.4 (17 October low), 4758.8 (13 October low), 4747.4 (15 September level).
Resistance levels: 4845.0, 4850.2 (21 October high), 4859.8 (18 October high), 4878.6, 4895.0, 4904.5 (10 October high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 4853.5 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 4873.6, 4895.0 and stop-loss at 4842.0. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price turns down and fall below the level of 4836.0 with targets at 4818.0, 4797.4 and stop-loss at 4845.0. Validity – 2-3 days.
The NASDAQ100 index ended yesterday’s trading session with moderate gains while other major US stock indexes closed in the red zone amid relatively poor macroeconomic data, disappointing quarterly earnings reports and a fall in oil prices.
On Thursday macroeconomic data showed an increase in the number of jobless claims. Initial claims increased from 247 000 to 260 000 against the forecast of 250 000. Continuing claims came out at 2.057 million while experts projected the indicator to remain unchanged at 2.050 million.
The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey index declined from 12.8 to 9.7 in October that was, however, better than the forecast of 5.3 points.
At the same time, it should be noted that data on the US housing sector was positive. After falling by 1.5% in August, existing home sales grew by 3.2% to 5.47 million in September while a gain of only 0.4% was expected.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving sideways while the price range remains almost unchanged. MACD is growing and keeping a weak buy signal. Stochastic has approached the border of the overbought zone and is about to turn horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 4836.0, 4822.7, 4815.4, 4802.2 (20 October low), 4783.4 (17 October low), 4758.8 (13 October low), 4747.4 (15 September level).
Resistance levels: 4845.0, 4850.2 (21 October high), 4859.8 (18 October high), 4878.6, 4895.0, 4904.5 (10 October high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 4853.5 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 4873.6, 4895.0 and stop-loss at 4842.0. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price turns down and fall below the level of 4836.0 with targets at 4818.0, 4797.4 and stop-loss at 4845.0. Validity – 2-3 days.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen,
the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the
price chart, current cloud has reversed from ascending to descending.
The instrument has entered the cloud. The closest support level is the
lower border of the cloud (126.70). The closest resistance level is the
lower border of the cloud (127.50).
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar continues strengthening
Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid some weakness in the American currency and due to a strengthening in the Australian Dollar, which was supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Against the previous month, New Motor Vehicle Sales in September increased by 2.5% while on a year-to-year basis their growth amounted to 0.8%.
In addition, the pair was substantially supported by the publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes. In the Minutes, the regulator noted that current economic conditions match their September forecasts and complained about the strength of the national currency, which is negatively affecting the economic growth of the country.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, trying to turn down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7655 (local low), 0.7638, 0.7615, 0.7600, 0.7580 (17 October low), 0.7560, 0.7533, 0.7516, 0.7500 (19 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7674 (local high), 0.7690 (4 October high), 0.7709 (29 September high), 0.7731 (8 September high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7750, 0.7820 and stop-loss at 0.7665. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7620 with targets at 0.7540, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7660. Validity – 2-3 days.
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid some weakness in the American currency and due to a strengthening in the Australian Dollar, which was supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Against the previous month, New Motor Vehicle Sales in September increased by 2.5% while on a year-to-year basis their growth amounted to 0.8%.
In addition, the pair was substantially supported by the publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes. In the Minutes, the regulator noted that current economic conditions match their September forecasts and complained about the strength of the national currency, which is negatively affecting the economic growth of the country.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, trying to turn down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7655 (local low), 0.7638, 0.7615, 0.7600, 0.7580 (17 October low), 0.7560, 0.7533, 0.7516, 0.7500 (19 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7674 (local high), 0.7690 (4 October high), 0.7709 (29 September high), 0.7731 (8 September high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7750, 0.7820 and stop-loss at 0.7665. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7620 with targets at 0.7540, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7660. Validity – 2-3 days.
AUD/USD: Australian Dollar continues strengthening
Current trend
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid some weakness in the American currency and due to a strengthening in the Australian Dollar, which was supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Against the previous month, New Motor Vehicle Sales in September increased by 2.5% while on a year-to-year basis their growth amounted to 0.8%.
In addition, the pair was substantially supported by the publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes. In the Minutes, the regulator noted that current economic conditions match their September forecasts and complained about the strength of the national currency, which is negatively affecting the economic growth of the country.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, trying to turn down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7655 (local low), 0.7638, 0.7615, 0.7600, 0.7580 (17 October low), 0.7560, 0.7533, 0.7516, 0.7500 (19 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7674 (local high), 0.7690 (4 October high), 0.7709 (29 September high), 0.7731 (8 September high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7750, 0.7820 and stop-loss at 0.7665. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7620 with targets at 0.7540, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7660. Validity – 2-3 days.
Yesterday the pair continued growing amid some weakness in the American currency and due to a strengthening in the Australian Dollar, which was supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Against the previous month, New Motor Vehicle Sales in September increased by 2.5% while on a year-to-year basis their growth amounted to 0.8%.
In addition, the pair was substantially supported by the publication of the RBA Meeting Minutes. In the Minutes, the regulator noted that current economic conditions match their September forecasts and complained about the strength of the national currency, which is negatively affecting the economic growth of the country.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range is widening. MACD is growing and giving a quite strong buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, trying to turn down.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 0.7655 (local low), 0.7638, 0.7615, 0.7600, 0.7580 (17 October low), 0.7560, 0.7533, 0.7516, 0.7500 (19 September low).
Resistance levels: 0.7674 (local high), 0.7690 (4 October high), 0.7709 (29 September high), 0.7731 (8 September high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 0.7750, 0.7820 and stop-loss at 0.7665. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7620 with targets at 0.7540, 0.7500 and stop-loss at 0.7660. Validity – 2-3 days.
EUR/JPY: Ichimoku clouds
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen,
the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains
horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart,
current cloud is descending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen
and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the
previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level
(113.00). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (114.30).
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (112.60). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (114.15).
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed downwards, while the blue one remains horizontal. Confirmative line Chikou Span is crossing the price chart from above, current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading below Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines; the Bearish trend is still strong. One of the previous minimums of Chikou Span line is expected to be a support level (112.60). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (114.15).
GBP/JPY: Ichimoku clouds
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the lines are
horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is below the price chart,
current cloud is ascending. The instrument is trading between Tenkan-sen
and Kijun-sen lines. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have become support
(127.10) and resistance (129.70) levels respectively.
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen,
the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the
price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has broken
through the cloud and slowed down its growth. The closest support level
is Tenkan-sen line (127.50). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen
line (128.40).
Let's look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen,
the lines are horizontal . Confirmative line Chikou Span is above the
price chart, current cloud is descending. The instrument has broken
through the cloud and slowed down its growth. The closest support level
is Tenkan-sen line (127.50). The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen
line (128.40).
USD/JPY: wave analysis
Pair’s fall is expected.
Assumingly, a starting impulse as the first wave has finished forming within an upward correction (B) of the higher level, which has already begun. Locally, a correction as wave ii seems to have started developing. If the assumption is correct, a fall in the pair towards 101.77 should be expected. Critical for this scenario is the level of 104.46.
Trading tips
Sell the pair below the level of 104.46 with the target at 101.77.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and consolidation above the level of 104.46 would allow the pair to grow to 107.13.
Assumingly, a starting impulse as the first wave has finished forming within an upward correction (B) of the higher level, which has already begun. Locally, a correction as wave ii seems to have started developing. If the assumption is correct, a fall in the pair towards 101.77 should be expected. Critical for this scenario is the level of 104.46.
Trading tips
Sell the pair below the level of 104.46 with the target at 101.77.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and consolidation above the level of 104.46 would allow the pair to grow to 107.13.
USD/CAD: wave analysis
Pair’s fall is expected.
Assumingly, a long-term correction as wave B of the higher level, which has taken the shape of a triple three wxywz, has finished forming. Locally, a starting impulse of the lower level i seems to have formed, and if the assumption is correct, the pair is expected to continue its fall towards 1.2819 after the correction ends. Critical for this scenario is the level of 1.3306.
Trading tips
Sell the pair below the level of 1.3306 with the target at 1.2819.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3306 would allow the pair to grow to 1.3400-1.3500.
Assumingly, a long-term correction as wave B of the higher level, which has taken the shape of a triple three wxywz, has finished forming. Locally, a starting impulse of the lower level i seems to have formed, and if the assumption is correct, the pair is expected to continue its fall towards 1.2819 after the correction ends. Critical for this scenario is the level of 1.3306.
Trading tips
Sell the pair below the level of 1.3306 with the target at 1.2819.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3306 would allow the pair to grow to 1.3400-1.3500.
XAG/USD: silver prices are rising
Current trend
Silver prices rose steadily on Tuesday, October 18, which was the first "bull" session in the last 6 trading days. The reason for the upward momentum were the uncertain position of the US currency, which remains under pressure since the beginning of the week. Despite the fact that on Tuesday the positive data on September’s CPI were published in the United States (the index rose up to 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY), however, Core CPI failed to meet analysts' expectations, slowing from 0.3% MoM to 0.1% MoM.
The inflation data were met ambiguously. Some analysts considered them a sign of the stability of the US economy, which, of course, should have a positive impact on the Fed's forecasts for the rise in interest rates before the end of the year. Skeptics, in turn, focused on the weak data on the index excluding food and energy.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 17.70 (maximum of October 18), 17.84 (mark of October 5), 18.00, 18.18, 18.47, 18.65, 18.77 (level of October 4), 19.00.
Support levels: 17.50, 17.29 (minimum of October 14), 17.14, 17.00 (mark of June 9).
The indicator "Bollinger Bands" on the daily chart is turning down. The price range is narrowing, reflecting another correction in the short term. It is recommended to stick to channel trading strategy and watch the price testing the average line of the indicator.
MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong signal to buy (the histogram is above the signal line). It is recommended to keep current long positions and open new ones in the short and very short-term.
Oscillator "Stochastic" is rapidly approaching the border of the overbought area. The indicator is not contrary to the further development of "bullish" trend, however, it points to a very limited capacity of short-term "bull".
Trading tips
To open a long position, you can rely on the breakdown of 17.70-17.84, provided that evidence of technical indicators’ recommendations will remain "bullish". Take-profit - 18.20 or 18.65. Stop-loss - 17.50. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
An alternative could be a reverse at the current price levels. The aim of the “bears” in this case may be a mark in the area 17.00. Stop-loss is should be no further 18.00. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
Silver prices rose steadily on Tuesday, October 18, which was the first "bull" session in the last 6 trading days. The reason for the upward momentum were the uncertain position of the US currency, which remains under pressure since the beginning of the week. Despite the fact that on Tuesday the positive data on September’s CPI were published in the United States (the index rose up to 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY), however, Core CPI failed to meet analysts' expectations, slowing from 0.3% MoM to 0.1% MoM.
The inflation data were met ambiguously. Some analysts considered them a sign of the stability of the US economy, which, of course, should have a positive impact on the Fed's forecasts for the rise in interest rates before the end of the year. Skeptics, in turn, focused on the weak data on the index excluding food and energy.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 17.70 (maximum of October 18), 17.84 (mark of October 5), 18.00, 18.18, 18.47, 18.65, 18.77 (level of October 4), 19.00.
Support levels: 17.50, 17.29 (minimum of October 14), 17.14, 17.00 (mark of June 9).
The indicator "Bollinger Bands" on the daily chart is turning down. The price range is narrowing, reflecting another correction in the short term. It is recommended to stick to channel trading strategy and watch the price testing the average line of the indicator.
MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong signal to buy (the histogram is above the signal line). It is recommended to keep current long positions and open new ones in the short and very short-term.
Oscillator "Stochastic" is rapidly approaching the border of the overbought area. The indicator is not contrary to the further development of "bullish" trend, however, it points to a very limited capacity of short-term "bull".
Trading tips
To open a long position, you can rely on the breakdown of 17.70-17.84, provided that evidence of technical indicators’ recommendations will remain "bullish". Take-profit - 18.20 or 18.65. Stop-loss - 17.50. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
An alternative could be a reverse at the current price levels. The aim of the “bears” in this case may be a mark in the area 17.00. Stop-loss is should be no further 18.00. Implementation period of 2-3 days.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
USD/CHF: wave analysis
Upward trend is strong.
Assumingly, an upward impulse as the third wave (iii) continues forming within the final wave c of 2. Locally, the third wave of the lower level iii of (iii) seems to have finished, and correction iv has started. If the assumption is correct, the pair is expected to continue its growth towards 0.9962-1.0000 after the correction ends. Critical for this scenario is the level of 0.9831.
Trading tips
Buy the pair above the level of 0.9831 with the target at 0.9962-1.0000.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and consolidation below the level of 0.9831 would allow the pair to fall to 0.9630.
Assumingly, an upward impulse as the third wave (iii) continues forming within the final wave c of 2. Locally, the third wave of the lower level iii of (iii) seems to have finished, and correction iv has started. If the assumption is correct, the pair is expected to continue its growth towards 0.9962-1.0000 after the correction ends. Critical for this scenario is the level of 0.9831.
Trading tips
Buy the pair above the level of 0.9831 with the target at 0.9962-1.0000.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and consolidation below the level of 0.9831 would allow the pair to fall to 0.9630.
AUD/USD: wave analysis
Pair’s fall possibility remains.
Assumingly, wave c of 2 of the higher level continues developing. Locally, the third wave (iii) seems to have started developing, within which a starting wave of the lower level i of (iii) has formed and an upward correction ii of (iii) is nearing the end. If the assumption is correct, the pair is expected to continue falling towards 0.7434-0.7335 after the correction ends. Critical for this scenario is the level of 0.7700.
Trading tips
Sell the pair below the level of 0.7700 with the target at 0.7434-0.7335.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.7700 would allow the pair to grow to 0.7900-0.8000.
Assumingly, wave c of 2 of the higher level continues developing. Locally, the third wave (iii) seems to have started developing, within which a starting wave of the lower level i of (iii) has formed and an upward correction ii of (iii) is nearing the end. If the assumption is correct, the pair is expected to continue falling towards 0.7434-0.7335 after the correction ends. Critical for this scenario is the level of 0.7700.
Trading tips
Sell the pair below the level of 0.7700 with the target at 0.7434-0.7335.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.7700 would allow the pair to grow to 0.7900-0.8000.
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